Eric L. Piza, Brandon C. Welsh, Savannah A. Reid, and David N. Hatten (2025)
Criminology & Public Policy
Key Takeaways
- The research addresses concerns about whether CCTV interventions provide lasting crime reduction effects.
- CCTV had a statistically significant impact on reducing auto theft in the intermediate term (3–4 years). However, the short-term (1–2 years) reduction was only marginally significant, and in the long-term (9–11 years), the deterrent effect attenuated.
- The findings suggest a “sleeper effect,” where deterrence from CCTV took time to develop before becoming significant. Over time, however, deterrence began to decay, indicating that CCTV effect diminishes over time.
- The study suggests that policymakers should not rely solely on short-term studies when assessing CCTV, as longer follow-ups may reveal more nuanced effects.
Research Summary
This study investigates the long-term impact of a large-scale CCTV surveillance project in Newark, New Jersey, to determine whether its crime prevention effects persist, diminish, or evolve over time. Using a quasi-experimental design with microsynthetic control matching, the study assesses the effects of CCTV on violent and property crimes over short-term (1–2 years), intermediate-term (3–4 years), and long-term (9–11 years) periods.
One of the key findings is that CCTV significantly reduced auto theft in the intermediate term, with a statistically significant decrease observed 3–4 years post-implementation. The short-term impact on auto theft was less pronounced, only approaching statistical significance (p = 0.08). Interestingly, this suggests a “sleeper effect,” where the deterrent impact of CCTV takes time to develop. However, by the long-term period (9–11 years), the deterrence effect on auto theft had subsided, aligning with what criminologists describe as “deterrence decay.”
Another important observation is the potential displacement of certain crimes, though these findings only approached statistical significance. In the short-term period, robbery showed signs of displacement (p = 0.09), while theft from auto appeared to increase in the long term (p = 0.06). This phenomenon suggests that offenders may adapt their behavior based on the perceived risks of CCTV surveillance.
The study builds upon prior evaluations of CCTV effectiveness, many of which have been criticized for relying on short-term analyses. By extending the follow-up period to over a decade, the study provides valuable insights into the sustainability of CCTV’s crime prevention benefits. It highlights the importance of distinguishing between immediate and long-term effects, as interventions that initially seem ineffective may yield significant deterrence over time, while those that show early success may eventually wane.
Policymakers should be cautious when making decisions based on short-term studies, as they may not capture the full trajectory of crime prevention effects. Additionally, the study suggests that static CCTV coverage might not be sufficient in sustaining crime deterrence over extended periods. Integrating CCTV with proactive law enforcement strategies, such as directed patrols, may enhance its effectiveness in the long run.
Despite its contributions, the study acknowledges limitations, including the inability to track when individual cameras were inoperative and the challenge of accounting for all environmental variables influencing crime trends. Nonetheless, it represents one of the most comprehensive long-term evaluations of CCTV to date, reinforcing the argument that crime prevention effects are dynamic and require ongoing assessment.
In conclusion, the research provides evidence that CCTV can produce significant crime reductions, particularly for auto theft, but its effectiveness varies over time. The study’s findings on deterrence decay and displacement effects offer critical insights for policymakers and law enforcement agencies considering CCTV as a long-term crime prevention strategy. It underscores the importance of continuous evaluation and adaptation of surveillance measures to ensure sustained effectiveness in crime reduction.
Eric L. Piza, Ph.D. 