Measuring the Temporal Stability of Near-Repeat Crime Patterns: A Longitudinal Analysis

David N. Hatten & Eric L. Piza (2020)

Crime & Delinquency

Study Abstract

This study investigates the temporal stability of identified near-repeat patterns using robbery crimes data in Newark, NJ. With the noteworthy exception of Hoppe & Gerell (2019) scholars have yet to explore the temporal stability of identified spatiotemporal crime clusters. Furthermore, researchers have yet to measure the near-repeat phenomenon longitudinally. To fill this gap, the current study employs a longitudinal design to measure variation in effect size and significance of identified near-repeat crime patterns across 13 “rolling” one-year time periods within a two-year study period (2015-2016). Temporal instability was found within two out of six spatiotemporal crime clusters. Results are reported in the form of formalized descriptive statistics and visualizations of temporal trends.

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